China returns to trade surplus
BEIJING, April 10: China on Tuesday posted a trade surplus for March, reversing a massive deficit the previous month, but data showed exports were still weak owing to the economic woes in major overseas markets.The country recorded a trade surplus of $5.35 billion for the month, as outward shipments rose 8.9 per cent to $165.66 billion, Chinese customs said.
But it added that imports rose just 5.3 per cent to $160.31 billion, indicating domestic consumption in the country of 1.3 billion people is flagging, amid concerns over a hard landing for the economy.In February, China posted a huge deficit of $31.48 billion the largest in more than adecade as it felt the ripples from the debt crisis in Europe and the stuttering recovery in the United States.
Analysts had predicted a deficit of $3.2 billion for March, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
But while the figure was better than expected Liao Qun, China economist for Citic Bank International told AFP: `The March surplus figure is relatively small as the deterioration in overseas markets since last year has continued to affect China`s exports.
Exports to the European Union, China`s largest trading partner, fell 1.8 per cent in the first quarter while sales to the United States, its second biggest trading partner, rose 12.8 per cent.
In the January-March period,China`s politically sensitive trade surplus was just $670 million, although that is an improvement on the $1.02 billion deficit in the same period last year.
The figures will likely ease pressure on leaders to allow the yuan currency to appreciate more strongly.
Beijing and Washington have been embroiled in a long-running dispute over the value of the unit, which US politicians say is kept artificially low to help Chinese exporters, leading to a huge trade gap between the two.
`The small (first quarter) trade surplus appears to support the view that the (yuan) exchange rate is moving closer to its equilibrium value, ANZ said in a research note on Tuesday.Analysts still widely expect China to record a trade surplus for the full year, helped by lower commodity prices and a recovery in exports, but much smaller than 2011.
Citi Bank is forecasting an annual trade surplus of around $100 billion this year.
Last year, the nation`s surplus narrowed to $155.14 billion from $181.51 billion in 2010, according to official figures, and the country`s continuing trade woes are expected to lead to a slowdown in the economy this year.
`China`s overall exports have stabilized, but will only see an obvious rebound in the second half,` said You Hongye, a macro-economy analyst at Essence Securities in Beijing.-AFP
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Asia to maintain growth: ADB
HONG KONG, April 11: Emerging Asian economies will experience flat growth this year before recovering in 2013, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a regional report released on Wednesday.The Asian Development Outlook report for 2012 said the region was shifting toward a `more sustainable long-run growth path` based on strong domestic demand instead of exports, which have been hit by wobbly Western demand.
But the study also warned that the region`s rising wealth was fuelling inequality and income disparities, with the underprivileged at risk of being sucked into a `vicious circle` of poverty and neglect.
The vast region`s gross domestic product (GDP)growth will `cool somewhat` to 6.9 percent in 2012, down from 7.2 per cent last year, before edging higher again to 7.3 per cent in 2013.
`Despite the weak global environment, developing Asia`s growth momentum continues,` it said.
`Strong domestic demand provided necessary support in 2011, and this will need to continue in light of the soft export demand expected from the major industrial economies of the United States (US), eurozone, and Japan.
Even with a slowdown this year, developing Asian economies would easily outshine Europe, the United States and Japan where output is forecast to grow only 1.1 per cent this year and 1.7 per-cent in 2013, the report said.
`Continued uncertainties in the eurozone and a further slump in global trade pose the biggest threats to the growth outlook,` ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee said in a statement.
`At the same time, Asian economies are gradually diversifying into new markets, private consumption is trending up and the region has limited direct financial exposure to the eurozone which should help sustain its momentum.
The stronger trend in domestic consumption in a group of countries known for high savings rates could be seen in the region`s current account surplus, which fell to 2.6 per cent of GDP from four per cent in 2010.-AFP
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